Eurovision 2019 – live musical analysis

Posted by JoeBon May 18, 2019November 22, 2019in EurovisionLeave a comment

[update – the day after]

I correctly predicted the winner (Netherlands), but my second and third place predictions (Sweden and Australia) were a little further down the list: Sweden was 6th, Australia 9th. Not bad.

Here’s an interactive infographic of the final scoreboard. The final top 9 were as follows (last column shows my prediction):

#	Country	Song/artist	Score	JB #
1	Netherlands	Arcade Duncan Laurence	492	1
2	Italy	Soldi Mahmood	465
3	Russia	Scream Sergey Lazarev	369
4	Switzerland	She Got Me Luca Hänni	360
5	Norway	Spirit in the Sky KEiiNO	338
6	Sweden	Too Late for Love John Lundvik	332	2
7	Azerbaijan	Truth Chingiz	297
8	North Macedonia	Proud Tamara Todevska	295
9	Australia	Zero Gravity Kate Miller-Heidke	285	3

[Original music analysis below]

Welcome to the 2019 Eurovision live musicology blog, now in its ninth year. This site has provided live (or pre-live) music analysis of the ESC final every year since 2011, previously during the UK live broadcast. Since 2016, the text has been written from Boston USA, 5 hours behind UK time and, this year, 7 hours behind Tel Aviv, where the show takes place.

The Contest can be watched on YouTube, and across many European and US networks and time zones. Parts of the blog post are typed as-live, but I’ve uploaded everything in advance so you can follow along with the show. For any non-Europeans who are unfamiliar with Eurovision, the Wikipedia page gives a great overview.

As before, I have posted predictions of the winners before the voting begins. 2015 is the only year so far that all three were correct, and in the correct order, but I’ve gotten close with the top few most of the time.

This year I’m including more of the chord loops, so that keyboard/guitar people can play along. These chords are transcribed at speed, and are sometimes slightly simplified for text purposes (e.g. there aren’t always 2^nd/3^rd time bars etc).

And, as always, I recommend music creative types (particularly songwriters and producers) read Milton Mermikides’ excellent Deux Points’ article, which gives top tips on how to write those fair-to-middling low-scoring ‘Euro-formula’ songs. As you listen to tonight’s show, look out to references to the Aeolian mode aka natural minor scale (in music generally, the least exotic of all the minor scales; in Eurovision terms, an essential signifier of cultural and emotional authenticity).

My predictions – (added before voting begins)

Winner: Netherlands
2^nd place: Sweden
3^rd place: Australia

1 Malta: Michela: Chameleon

BPM: 98 Key: Bbm
Verse: | F | Bbm / / (Gb) | F | Gb |
Pre: | Gb Bbm | Db Ab | Gbmaj7 Db | Ab | x2
Chorus: F | Bbm | F | Gb | x 2

Eurovision 2018 – live music analysis blog #eurovision

Posted by JoeBon May 12, 2018May 23, 2018in Eurovision, music production, Popular Music, Songwriting3 Comments

Final results

[voting results entered at ~11.30pm GMT / 6.30pm ET on May 12th 2018. My predictions shown in brackets]

Israel ‘TOY’ (2)
Cyprus ‘Fuego’ (1)
Austria ‘Nobody But You’ (x)
Germany ‘You Let Me Walk Alone’ (4)
Italy ‘Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente’ (x)

My predictions (actual placing shown in brackets):

Cyprus ‘Fuego’ (2)
Israel ‘TOY’ (1)
Ireland ‘Together’ (16)
Germany ‘You Let Me Walk Alone’ (4)
France ‘Mercy’ (13)

So I missed Austria and Italy completely, but got the first two (albeit reversed) and predicted three of the top four.

Of the soft predictions:

The Danes’ ‘Higher Ground’ (my personal favourite) will do well, but won’t win.
CORRECT. Denmark came 9th (of 26)
Finland’s ‘Monsters’ will be in the top half of the voting.
WRONG. Finland were 25th out of 26!
The Netherlands’ competent and enjoyable US country-rock ‘Outlaw in ‘Em’ will get some votes but will be in the bottom half.
CORRECT. 18th of 26.
The Estonian operatics won’t do well.
WRONG. Estonia were 8th of 26.
The Hungarian metalheads will get crucified. Which will probably suit them just fine.
CORRECT. Hungary were 21st out of 26.

Predictions

[Written at at 10:19pm GMT (5:19pm ET) on May 12th 2018, before voting begins]. As always, I’ll leave the predictions here permanently, and post the real results when the voting is complete.

Cyprus ‘Fuego’
Israel ‘TOY’
Ireland ‘Together’
Germany ‘You Let Me Walk Alone’
France ‘Mercy’

Soft predictions:

The Danes’ ‘Higher Ground’ (my personal favourite) will do well, but won’t win.
Finland’s ‘Monsters’ will be in the top half of the voting.
The Netherlands’ competent and enjoyable US country-rock ‘Outlaw in ‘Em’ will get some votes but will be in the bottom half.
The Estonian operatics won’t do well.
The Hungarian metalheads will get crucified. Which will probably suit them just fine.

Intro

Welcome to the 2018 Eurovision live musicology blog, now in its eighth year. This site has provided live music analysis of the ESC final every year since 2011, previously during the UK live broadcast. Since 2016, the text has been written from Boston USA, 5 hours behind UK time and, this year, also the Altice Arena in Lisbon, Portugal, where the live show takes place.

Eurovision 2018 preview – top 10

Posted by JoeBon May 11, 2018in Eurovision, musicology, Popular Music, SongwritingLeave a comment

It’s Eurovision eve!

[For any Americans who are unfamiliar with the ESC, here’s the background]

Back in 2010 I live-tweeted some song commentary as the show was going out. Since 2011 I’ve been live-blogging the show, with real-time music analysis and commentary, and attempting to predict the winners before the voting begins.

Since 2015 I’ve been in the USA, and for the last two years have had to pre-blog due to work commitments and the time difference, but this year I’m pleased to say true live-blogging is back and I’ll be sitting down at 3pm ET/8pm UK time to be live-blogging. So please go to http://www.joebennett.net at those times and refresh your browser after each song. I’ll be chord-analysing, BPM detecting and quality-scoring each song as we go.

Here’s a preview of the top 10 watched YouTube Eurovision song videos in April. I note that an early favourite was Belgium, who didn’t make it through the semi-finals.

Eurovision 2017 : live blog

Posted by JoeBon May 13, 2017December 8, 2019in Eurovision1 Comment

Next morning: the results

[edit – posted the next morning, Sunday 13th May 2017]

Portugal
Bulgaria
Moldova
Belgium
Sweden
Italy

My predictions were:

Portugal (correct!)
Italy (actually 6th)
Sweden (actually 5th)
(or 5.) Bulgaria (actually 2nd)

Not my best year so far, but not my worst either.

Successfully predicted the winner (Portugal)
All my top 3 were in the top 6
I was too snarky about the Moldovans (though I maintain it’s a terrible song)
I was right to stick up for plucky Bulgaria
The voters liked Belgium’s misery-fest more than I did
Italy might have scored higher but apparently self-sabotaged their performance on the night with a dancing gorilla.

[———–edit ends———–]

[original pre-live blog below, with videos embedded]

Predictions

[Written at at 9:14pm GMT on May 13th 2017, before voting begins]

Portugal
Italy
Sweden

(Bulgaria also somewhere in the top 5)

How to use this blog entry

When the show begins, scroll down to the first performer (Israel) and read the text live along with the show, or just watch the videos. Intro

Welcome to the 2017 Eurovision live musicology blog, now in its seventh year. This site has provided live music analysis of the ESC final every year since 2011, previously during the UK live broadcast. Since 2016, the text has been written from Boston USA, 5 hours behind UK time and 7 hours behind the International Exhibition Centre in Kiev.

The Contest is now broadcast in the US, which would be a 3pm start time here, but the final usually (as this year) coincides with my students’ Commencement. So blog will still be ‘pre-live’, but the comments and predictions are published an hour or so ahead of the live broadcast of the final. This means I’m working from the published running order and watching the videos on the ESC website. For any non-Europeans who are unfamiliar with Eurovision, the Wikipedia page gives a great overview.

As before, I’ve posted predictions of the winners before the voting begins. 2015 is the only year so far that all three were correct, and in the correct order, but I’ve gotten close with the top few most of the time.

Live blog

(scroll down along with the show, or if you’re reading this after the show has ended, watch the videos)

1 Israel – IMRI – I feel alive

Lots of builds here, harmonically and dynamically. The whole song form is three big ramps; the first is from the intro through verse 1 to the end of chorus 1; the second from verse 2 to the end of chorus 2; then a drop bridge, with a final ramp to the end. There are really two 8-bar pre-choruses, both of which use the chorus chord loop of Ab | Cm | Bb | Fm – so you get the feeling of chorusyness two, arguably three times. The song could be called ‘breaking me to pieces’ and have a perfectly good chorus, but when he hits the high autotuned C note on the title’s “I feel alive”. I’m typing this based on the video – so for those watching it live, see how they manage that high falsetto note. His ability to hit it (or mime convincingly to it as a ‘backing’ vocal) could affect the score bigly. Sorry, typing this from America.

51%

Eurovision 2016 live blog

Posted by JoeBon May 14, 2016May 15, 2016in Eurovision, musicology, Popular Music, Songwriting1 Comment

[Next morning]

OK so I got two of the top three, and predicted Australia’s placing, but I underestimated the power of Jamala’s vocal, or perhaps the political impact of the lyric of 1944.

THE WINNERS

Ukraine
Australia
Russia

THE PREDICTIONS

Russia
Australia
France

ORIGINAL PRE-LIVE BLOG

Eurovision 2015 live blogging

Posted by JoeBon May 23, 2015July 19, 2015in Eurovision3 Comments

[Comment 23:52]

So I got a home run for the first time – the top 3 correctly predicted, and in the right order. See you again next year!

OK here are my predictions, which I’m making at 22:21 before the voting opens. The actual results will be posted here after the voting is complete (and I’ll leave my wrong predictions here for the record).

My predictions 2015 [posted at 22:21]

1st: Sweden
2nd: Russia
3rd: Italy

(I think Cyprus and Serbia could do well (charming melody and self-assertive lyric respectively) but will be further down the ranking)

Actual results 2015 [posted at 23:52}

1st: Sweden
2nd: Russia
3rd: Italy

Eurovision 2014 live blogging

Posted by JoeBon May 10, 2014May 9, 2017in Eurovision, Songwriting2 Comments

[This is a live blog – hit ‘refresh’ in your browser at the end of each song throughout the evening and the most recent one will appear at the top. As in 2013, each song will be scored as we hear it. Geeky musicological commentary will be added wherever possible. As always I’m going to try to pick a winner.]

So, here are my predictions. I am typing this at 22:04 on the night (before voting begins), and will, as in previous years, leave my (inevitably wrong!) top 3 here for posterity, and afterwards will post the actual winners below these. If you’re reading this you can stop hitting refresh now. I got two of the top 3 right in 2012 and all my top 3 were in the top 5 last year, and got the winners right for both years. I’d like to see the UK do well of course but I can’t honestly say we’ve got the best song. For me, it’s between The Bearded Austrian Lady, Swedish Apple-Z Chordsmiths and The Dutch Cowboys, although the Danes’ Bieberisms are in with a chance too. I’m going to play safe and put the Swedes at the top. But #3 could be Austria or Denmark. What to do…? I’m going with Austria – the 007/beard combo swings it.

Predictions 2014:

Sweden – Undo
The Netherlands – Calm After The Storm
Austria – Rise Like a Phoenix

———–[edit 23:28]———–

I got the top 3 spot on for the first time! Admittedly mine were in a different order. The actual order was this:

Austria – Rise Like a Phoenix
The Netherlands – Calm After The Storm
Sweden – Undo

—————[ends]————-

26: United Kingdom – Children of the Universe (Molly)

The loop is ii IV | I V | in F# major and the title hook is very well used here. The fact that the melody is constantly descending in each chorus phrase means that, for me, it seems to keep running out of energy at the end of each line, and the singer then needs to belt out the high C# to lift it again. But this is better than many a UK effort and I’m pleased that we’re writing better material this year. Although if it wins I imagine the Swedes will be miffed (Molly wrote it with Anders Hansson).

64%

25: San Marino – Maybe (Forse) (Valentina Monetta)