[This is a live blog – hit ‘refresh’ in your browser throughout the evening and the most recently performed song will appear at the top. As in 2012, each song will be scored as we hear it. Geeky musicological commentary will be added wherever possible. As always I’m going to try (and will probably fail) to pick a winner.]
So, to the predictions. I am typing this at 22:07 on the night, and will, as in previous years, leave my (inevitably wrong!) top 3 here for posterity, and afterwards will post the actual winners below these. I got two of the top 3 right in 2012, but I’m worried this was a fluke. I really want Greece’s ‘Alcohol is free’ to do well, but I fear that there may not be enough irony in mainland Europe to fuel its deserved propulsion up the ranks. I’m also concerned that my grumpiness about Ireland may be misplaced – people might just buy those lyric clichés. They’ve done it before, and will carry on… till the end of time…
2013 Eurovision – my predicted top 3

1. Denmark
2. Norway
3. Russia

—————- [edit – 23:30pm]
2013 Eurovision – actual top 5

1. Denmark
2. Azerbaijan
3. Ukraine
4. Norway
5. Russia

So all of my top 3 were in the top 5 – but I missed two big songs (Azerbaijan and Ukraine) by a fair distance, only scoring them as 61% and 64% respectively.  But the blog successfully predicted the winner in both 2012 and 2013 (albeit after a total disaster in 2011, where I failed to get any of the top 3).
Overall, I thought the song quality was way higher in 2013 than in previous years, with a general consistency of good quality songwriting across the board. See you next year!
—————– [end of edit]
26 Ireland • Ryan Dolan • “Only Love Survives”
Don’t say ‘Dancing ’til the morning light’… don’t say ‘Dancing ’til the morning light’… don’t say ‘Dancing ’til the morning light’… don’t say ‘Dancing ’til the morning light’… don’t say ‘Dancing ’til the morning light’… don’t say ‘Dancing ’til the morning light’… oh, you did. And did I hear a ‘Till the end of time’ in there as well? Dolan, you have wasted a perfectly good title by copying other people’s homework. Detention for you. But there is a lot of big synthy production here, and this might distract a fair few people from the slightly meandering chorus and downbeat melody on the title line. Apparently a lot of people like this, but I’m not one of them.
62%
25 Georgia • Nodi Tatishvili and Sophie Gelovani • “Waterfall”
First things first. This is a duet, so will not win. It’s a pretty good big ballad, though. The chorus is based on a standard diatonic four-chord loop but with a nice variation at the end of the chorus. And… wait. That was a great key change – wonderful use of a vocal pivot note. And because they made us wait, it sounded like a bigger key change than the semitone rise that it actually was. Not bad at all, and should at least make the top 10, perhaps even the top 5.
75%
24 Norway • Margaret Berger • “I Feed You My Love”
Really well done, this. The tension in the verse is built brilliantly, by using the same melodic lick over and over as the chords descend ominously. A strange combination of hope and threat. No pre-chorus, and rightly so. The rising melodic chorus line “I can see” (notes of F#-A-B) is nearly the pitch peak of it, and is just trounced in the next line (the word ‘feed’) which hits the 9th of C#, creating a lovely melodic shape over the title. Magnificent.
80%
23 Italy • Marco Mengoni • “L’essenziale” • The essential
If you’re going to do a slow power ballad, you might as well apply the adjective with some commitment. This is around 62BPM. And they threw in the key change (Ab to A) somewhere around verse 2. That’s just wasting your ingredients, like stirring icing sugar into the cake mix. The chorus is really well sung. Not sure why they didn’t go further with the harmonies, though. Nice b7 chord at the end of the chorus. Biggest power-to-tempo pro rata ratio so far, I reckon.
67%
22 Ukraine • Zlata Ognevich • “Gravity”
That’s cheating! You can’t put the last chorus key change IN the chorus! Perhaps the Lithuanians loaned them their harmonic randomiser. The title hook is nicely incorporated and that descending 4th over the word ‘Gravity’ works well (descending… gravity… see what they did there?). Unspectacular melodically, particularly in the verses. Fair to middling.
64%
21 Greece • Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis • “Alcohol Is Free”
Oh yes! Some ska! In a sort of Greek way. And THIS is how to do a singable chorus – just repeat the title over and over! The loop in this one is Dm-F-Bb-A. This is a huge crowd pleaser in the hall, and I hope it’s not one of those songs that is more giggable than it is memorable. I think that this is so good that the Greeks must be panicking. If they win, what will the the 2014 gig hosting do to the economy?
70%
20 Azerbaijan • Farid Mammadov • “Hold Me”
No amount of weird melody lifts in the verse can disguise the inevitability of the imminent four-chord loop in the chorus. But I do like the economy of the writing here – especially the short verse. They’re using form really well and not wasting any time structurally. A standard semitone lift (Bbm-Bm) in the final chorus, and a nicely-done downbeat final line, without losing any of the power created by the key change and dynamic. Big chorus hook, but might be too difficult to sing. Hotly tipped, apparently, but not doing it for me.
61%
19 Iceland • Eythor Ingi • “Ég á líf” • I am alive
A very restrained power ballad, but I think they are keeping some dynamics back in secret Icelandic underground pop arsenal silos, ready to unleash all their weapons near the end. Nice simple A-B-C# rising melodic motif. And…. THERE IT IS. Key change and dynamic lift straight to B major without a passing chord (basically, the same melodic pickup as in Whitney Houston’s version of I Will Always Love You. But I think they left a few important guns back at base. The wedge of cheese was not wide enough here. Nice melody though, and should do quite well.
65%
18 Denmark • Emmelie de Forest • “Only Teardrops”
Three phrases in the verse, then straight into the pre-chorus. Not messin’ about! Wonderfully melodic chorus. Some difficult to sing consonants (e.g. the sibilant ‘s’ at the end of ‘times’) that could have used some edits, but I think the melody is so strong that it compensates. That piccolo/fife melody is a great secondary hook, too. They achieved the feeling of a key change without actually leaving A minor behind – unless it started lower and I missed it (this is a real-time blog – can you smell the fear?). The classic chord loop Am-F-C-G will be much strummed by guitarists if it wins. And I think it might. My personal favourite so far.
86%
17 Hungary • ByeAlex • “Kedvesem” (Zoohacker Remix) • My darling
I am typing so fast that I don’t have much time to look up at the performers, but these guys seem to be the biggest mismatch between dress code and musical content. Looks like an urban carjacker, sounds like Peter Sarstedt. Chorus hook is annoying – more phrases that don’t really listen to the chords. Far too understated to make an impact. Folky-ish – but bland and uninteresting.
45%
16 Sweden • Robin Stjernberg • “You”
Proper Scanda-pop, this, and delivered with a whole lotta pop tricks, including some simple chord loops and a tempo of around 128BPM (the most popular tempo of 2012, as stated in a previous blog entry). The tension is lifted nicely through what feels like a double pre-chorus, which pre-signifies the chorus proper. We’re in F# major, which makes that chorus melody phrase based on notes of G#-A#-C#-A#-G# (and a drop off at the end of the melisma down to F#). This could be our first palindromic chorus hook of the evening. Perhaps the Swedes are only this good at making hooks because they catch so many fish…
76%
15 United Kingdom • Bonnie Tyler • “Believe in Me”
Here’s the UK’s entry, which is the only one I’ve heard plenty of times in advance. A fair to middling mid-tempo power ballad. The bridge has a nice b7 F major chord (we’re in G major) to open it, and the chorus ends with a slightly shorter phrase with the rest truncated. A well written song technically, but not quirky or interesting. And that 75BPM slow tempo is, as they say in Yorkshire, neither nowt nor summat. We need to do better than this if we are to compensate for the fact that so much of Europe isn’t keen on us.
56%
14 Romania • Cezar • “It’s My Life”
Nondescript verse, though I do like the lift to the D major in the harmony. The half time feel in the choruses certainly does highlight that bonkers falsetto vocal. This was, with hindsight, a mistake on the part of the arranger. It should have been disguised with many riffs. And… there’s the key change. Only up a semitone to Cm, but I’m amazed he had any headroom. Graham (Norton, UK commentator) has rightly just said “just because you can do something, it doesn’t follow that you should”. Amen to that. This guy is an amazing singer, clearly, but these octaves have had no place in my life since 1982. Melodically, a strange combination of dull  and unpleasant.
41%
13 Netherlands • Anouk • “Birds”
Where are these chords going? This is madness! But it’s beautiful – I think I’ve spotten 3 key changes so far – not sure, but I think Ebm, Bbm and A major. And now we’re ending in B major with some weird b6-melody inspiring Em chords and mixolydian A majors thrown in. I love the chorus melody too. Musicologically, the weirdest one so far. In a good way! Cannot  win. I can’t see the people of Europe linking arms over this, but I love it.
59%
12 Armenia • Dorians • “Lonely Planet”
Composed by Tony Iommi of Black Sabbath, apparently. And here’s the verse. Surprisingly diatonic and riff-free considering his input. Horrible chorus pitches. I hate it when people sing the fifth of the scale without taking account of the underlying chords. It’s in B major and that G#-F# two note fragment that makes up the chorus ‘melody’ is grim. Key change was OK – up a tone to C# major. So far, no one has beaten the Russians in the biggest-interval-in-a-final-chorus-key-change contest (a private contest that only happens in my head every year). And I don’t think anyone will beat them – going beyond a minor third is just too damn dangerous. Listening to the production, there was a time in my life when I would have forgiven this song’s mediocrity because of the twiddly metalhead guitar licks. But that time was 1985, Tommy Vance is gone, and I now listen to Radio 2.
46%
11 Germany • Cascada • “Glorious”
Why don’t we just let it show / tell me what you’re waiting for / I can feel the music in me. This is cut ‘n’ shut lyric writing. I don’t mind a good cliché – in fact I’ll tolerate them until the cows come home. Not convinced by this chorus. There are just too many long notes. Yes you can create big texture that way, but it doesn’t help people to remember the chorus. The Eb-Gm-F-Bb chorus chord loop is fair enough, but I think they’ve stacked all those layered synth chords over it to try to hide the underlying mediocrity of the chorus writing. Nothing to see here.
52%
10 Russia • Dina Garipova • “What If”
Nice use of rhetorical lyric repetition on the verses. How are they going to use the title in the chorus if they’ve used it up in the verse. Could this be an AABA form 32 bar standard? Ah. No. They’ve just used the ttle again in the chorus. Brave. I like the anthemic chorus harmonic A | C#m| F#m-D | Esus, and the supertonic pitch peak against the minor iii chord. And… blimey! A minor 3rd key change! These guys are on fire! Very fine. Could score well.
75%
09 Malta • Gianluca • “Tomorrow”
A-B9-D-A loop in the verse – quirky and fun, at a sedate 93BPMish. The ukulele is like McFly at their most recent and playful (in fact isn’t it the same loop as ‘If This Is Love’?). Smiley and enjoyable vocal. I love that 9th chord in the verse, and the loop doesn’t outstay its welcome on the run up to the pre-chorus. The ‘ohhh…oooh’ hook is going to go down well I think. He’s hitting A above middle C. Pretty good while running around and grinning with his fellow bumpkins. Cutesy but maybe too much so. I love it, but my cheese tolerance is greater than most people’s.
65%
08 Belarus • Alyona Lanskaya • “Solayoh”
There are always a few that do some solid Eastern European syncopations, and this is a pretty good. The verse builds the power and tension nicely. It goes very cleanly between E harmonic minor and E Aeolian, and sounds completely natural doing so. The chorus isn’t all that easy to remember after one listen, which might count against it, but actually by chorus 2 I was hooked. A drum breakdown – lovely. Is there going to be a key change up a semitone? Yes! And we’re in F minor. A good place to end. The crowd like it – and so do I. Good combination of simple melody fragments and interesting harmonic bed.
67%
07 Estonia • Birgit • “Et uus saaks alguse” (So there can be a new beginning)
Inoffensive piano ballad intro, clearly waiting for a dynamic lift to an inoffensive mid-tempo chorus. And…. there it is. The Csus4 resolution is a bit of a poor man’s ABBA, as is the use of inversions in the pre-chorus (or second half of the verse, depending on how you analyse the form). The chorus is a nice lift. Where’s the key change? Come on, people – this chorus is begging for it. Offend us with an offensive key change! No? Really? Trailing off on a bendy electric guitar note? Shame. A bit dated, harmonically, and not in a good way (by which I mean, ABBA).
52%
06 Belgium • Roberto Bellarosa • “Love Kills”
Just the two melody notes for the start of the verse, then. There are altogether too many C# notes in this song – it makes the verses dull, and they then have to work harder with the arrangement and dynamics to lift it out of the melodic sludge. But the hook ‘Love Kills, over and over’ is great – almost like it comes from a better song than the rest of it. Oooh nice middle 8 – Db to A – wasn’t expecting a major third drop from the tonic chord in such a diatonic song. And the big return to the repeated chorus is gratuitous but entirely justified. The memory of this chorus is slowly erasing the trauma of listening to that verse melody.
66%
05 Spain • ESDM • “Contigo hasta el final” (With you until the end)
Big anthemic pipes intro in Ab major, into Ronan Keating-style plain vanilla acoustic pop guitar strumming. It picks up nicely in the classic wedge of cheese style. And here’s the chorus. The romance languages sound so great with big singable vowels. But I think this might be style over content. It’s a very ‘produced’ chorus, with big vocals, but for me the dynamic leaps between the big chorus and small acoustic bits are too obviously contrived to create peaks for the listener.  Not bad at all, but not interesting enough to rise above the pack.
54%
04 Finland • Krista Siegfrids • “Marry Me”
This is more like it. Punk-pop no-nonsense verse. F-Gm-Eb-Bb loop for most (all?) of it. Chorus is cracking – really simple and extremely singable. The ‘o-o- a ding dong’ is classic Eurovision and is effectively an extra chorus for free. Oooooh! Rock breakdown section! That was unexpected. And it’s a crazy 142BPM – excellent up-tempo fun to be had. I have no comment to make on the gay kiss. This is musicology, not sociology.
74%
03 Moldova • Aliona Moon • “O mie” (a thousand)
Also in Dm, like the previous one. But the order is randomised, so unavoidable, I guess. Four-chord Dm loop for the verse. Fair enough. I like the descending melodic fragment on which the chorus is based but it’s not singable enough for the crowd. And now the key change – nicely done. They’ve left enough pitch room for the vocal pyrotechnics, and she’s obliging well. In Leona’s frock. Pretty good, and pleasingly melodramatic, but too shrieky to do really well, I think.
57%
02 Lithuania • Andrius Pojavis • “Something”
Dull verse. And this guy is singing nearly all of it so far below middle C. I’m hoping for big pitch peaks later. Mediocre vocal. Errrr… was that the chorus? I missed it. The chorus is hardly higher in pitch than the verse. “Because of the shoes I’m wearing today…” – is this really a reason to fall in love with someone. Harmonically it sounds like they can’t decide what chords to play – the changes to F and to Dm always sound like they are created by some kind of harmonic-randomiser plugin. Hmmm. I’d quite like to have a go on one of those.
43%
01 France • Amandine Bourgeois • “L’enfer et moi”
The verse sounds like Another Brick In The Wall slowed down to 90BPM and transposed into C#m. I do like the lift into the relative major (also taken from ABITW). The chorus is trying to succeed on pitch breadth, I reckon. That high C# octave works pretty well, but makes it less singable by the crowd. It’s great to have some good solid rock opening the show. But it won’t win.
Opening anthem
When I heard that choral intro I wondered why it all sounded like an ABBA masterpiece – skipping cross rhythms, playful inversions, massive anthemic chorus, loads of big vowels. Then Graham explained that it was the new Eurovision anthem We Write the Story written by Benny and Björn (with Avicii).
Oh and they’ve gone for the key change. Had to be done. Now the mixolydian overdriven guitar countermelody riffs are coming, in between the chorus phrases. Just like the Voulez Vous album. Heaven.